Economists See Unemployment Dipping Below 8 Percent This Year


More than 30 leading economists believe the unemployment rate should dip below 8 percent by Election Day, though likely won't fall below 6 percent for at least another three years.

An unemployment rate below 6 percent is considered a sign of a healthy economy.

Unemployment rates have dropped steadily since last year, going from 9.0 in September 2011 to 8.2 percent for March of this year. The unemployment rate began steadily rising in 2008 as the recession hit, peaked at 10 percent in October 2009, and remained stagnant for more than a year after.

If the unemployment rate does drop below 8 percent, it could potentially boost President Obama's re-election chances. Since 1956, no president has lost re-election when the unemployment rate dropped leading up to Election Day.

Thirty-two economists surveyed by the Associated Press believe the economy has entered a "virtuous cycle" where hiring boosts customer spending, which in turn fuels more hiring and spending.

They do, however, predict that hiring for the remainder of 2012 won't keep up with the brisk pace of the first few months.

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  • by lydiadangerfield Location: United States on May 4, 2012 at 12:38 AM
    However, we should expect further worsening on joblessness in the country in the next quarter because of political anxieties in the Middle East, check out an article called High Speed Universities for relation between a degree and job and the pay rate.
  • by Unemployed on May 3, 2012 at 06:51 PM
    So where are the jobs?
  • by g henson Location: el paso county on May 3, 2012 at 12:49 PM
    Are the people that has run out of benefits and still no job counted in "unemployment dipping"?
    • reply
      by Ed on May 3, 2012 at 12:58 PM in reply to g henson
      Yes, they are counted. The BLS conducts a mail survey to 60 thousand homes (100 thousand people). From that they calculate the unemployment. Has nothing to do with the number of checks being written.
  • by Nath Location: Colo Spgs on May 3, 2012 at 11:34 AM
    Sorry Associated Press, but it ain't so. Stu Varney set the record straight this morning on FOX news. The weekly number released on Wednesday mornings is always revised later in the week and always goes UP. He also said there are currently more than 22 million unemployed or under employed Americans. That sounds like there isn't any recovery at all to me.
    • reply
      by @Nath on May 3, 2012 at 11:51 AM in reply to Nath
      Correct. Just more propaganda from our dear leaders.
    • reply
      by FauxNews on May 3, 2012 at 12:34 PM in reply to Nath
      Well if Fox said it, it must be true
      • reply
        by Dol on May 3, 2012 at 01:49 PM in reply to FauxNews
        based on Obama's own Department of Labor statistics. So who's lying?
  • by Anonymous on May 3, 2012 at 11:04 AM election year, right? Unfortnately, the rest of us unemployed continue to see approximately thirty percent unemployment rates...
  • by Paul Location: Colorado on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 AM
    Of course they will say it is before the elections, that does not mean it will be true, I believe it is still above 16% with almost no real growth since this begin, and that does not count the under employed or those that have just fallen off the rolls or those of us that had to start or SS at 62 just to survive. What ever you do, just remember that if a politician, or an economist is talking, they are lying.
    • reply
      by Ed on May 3, 2012 at 12:41 PM in reply to Paul
      Your right, it doesnt count the under-employed, because its a measure of UN-employed. Also, It does count those not on the unemployment check line. Go to the BLS website and educate yourself. They conduct a mail survey every month to 10s of thousands of homes, and get a cross section which they use to calculate the unemployment rate. Has absolutely nothing to do with the number of claims filed in a week. And just for perspective, I spent 52 weeks unemployed, wife, 2 kids, 6months into a new home purchase.
      • reply
        by @ Ed on May 3, 2012 at 02:46 PM in reply to Ed
        Maybe you could post the link to the BLS website for those who might want to look for themselves (and for those that don't want to bother looking it up for themselves!)
        • reply
          by Ed on May 3, 2012 at 03:07 PM in reply to @ Ed
          I didn't know going to google and typing in "BLS how is unemployment calculated" was that difficult.
        • reply
          by @ Ed on May 3, 2012 at 03:14 PM in reply to @ Ed
          It wasn't difficult to do... I would have posted it myself, but couldn't copy and paste on my phone. Also, I figured that some people might be too lazy to search on Google themselves for it! :)
  • by Sweet on May 3, 2012 at 10:23 AM
    I'll let my bank know, the job is in the mail. Just be patient.
  • by Dol on May 3, 2012 at 10:18 AM
    According to the Dept. of Labor, compared to 5 years ago: - there are 3.2 million more people working part-time jobs because they can't find full-time work - there are 18 million more people not working/not looking - the real "underemployed" U6 rate is 19% Ouch.
  • by Ranae Location: Oregon on May 3, 2012 at 09:54 AM
    I am confused on how these so called statistics regarding unemployment rates falling are really considered true? 'We the people' who are out here in little to no Help Wanted in our communities are curious! Lately the Federal Gov. took the unemployment extension benefits away, predicted an increase in foreclosures then said employment rates have increased. At the same time announcing lay offs. Really? News flash; the American People are not that stupid!!! But we are losing hope! If you could only live NOT being rich you might relate!
    • reply
      by @Ranae on May 3, 2012 at 10:17 AM in reply to Ranae
      For the record your support of class warfare is exactly as the leaders on both parties want. The rich have become the scapegoats of tyrannical leaders who wish nothing more than to bring socialism in and throw away your freedoms. It falls under divide and conquer tactics which if you listen to the President is exactly what he is doing with comments like "if I had a son".
  • by really? on May 3, 2012 at 09:05 AM
    1 in 5 Americans is out of work these numbers by no means match with the whitehouses bogus inflated job numbers of working Americans. A way to lower unemployment is to enforce immigration laws and make welfare recipients go out and do manual field labor on the farms. Some people will scream racism at this and others have a false sense of pride that this type of work is demeaning. What is demeaning is being unemployed and proud, collecting welfare while you watch your big screen tv driving a brand new Escalade and demanding others pay for your lifestyle as well as demanding social justice because you aren't getting your way(cry babies). It is time we send people back out to the fields instead of giving them handouts and weakening them and society as whole. Plenty of stuff needs picking and if you are to proud to do it you should lose all your benefits as well as housing assistance and foodstamps(obama bucks). You are not entitled to anything unless it is specified in the Bill of Rights and welfare is not in the Bill of Rights so stop being a parasite, swallow some false pride and actually take a step to becoming a mature adult who understands what responsibility is. That is what being an American is about, tasking pride in everything you do even if it is a so called demeaning job because it sure beats having no pride and living of the hardworking American taxpayers as a parasite.
    • reply
      by Fully Employed on May 3, 2012 at 09:14 AM in reply to really?
      Yeah good luck on that one. Migrant workers work hard and you expect welfare recipients to do that. You'll starve waiting for that to happen. Most of you just don't get it. The southerners that come and pick your fruit and vegetables work hard for what little they get. If we had American workers, they'd expect minimum wage at the least - then you'd be complaining of the high prices because we had to pay them. Americans wont' do this kind of work. Ask a farmer! Farmers speak up!
      • reply
        by really? on May 3, 2012 at 10:23 AM in reply to Fully Employed
        It is because Americans have gotten soft, believing entitlements are better than working. Hard work doesn't kill, ignorance kills and Americans need to realize that a job is a job whether it is non union or commie union labor. People no longer take pride in their jobs just look at our manufacturing jobs with the so called quality they put out. Pride in the workplace is gone and it is the fault of society as a whole demanding from their governments and yet not willing to make sacrifices in their own households. I see that with the welfare queen down the street from me, she demands everything, lives of the government with any entitlement she can get and has new furniture, new car, etc. etc. while we pay for her rent, food and children. This is fraud and the government needs to crack down on these people.
    • reply
      by 1929 on May 3, 2012 at 09:22 AM in reply to really?
      If the workforce has become a little less gung ho than you expect them to be, perhaps the in-your-face government corruption coupled with a bogus banking system has something to do with that. I feel sorry for those who lost their homes unaware that it's all part of the plan. Since then there is more awareness of how the banking/debt system works and it's hard to feel sorry for the banks that lend out money that didn't exist in the first place and then charge you interest on top of that. If it makes to feel more noble to "honor your committment" then fine but if you have figured out the endgame, nobility won't matter
    • reply
      by Anonymous on May 3, 2012 at 09:24 AM in reply to really?
      Ending the phony, globalist war on terror would save a few bucks but we wouldn't achieve bankruptcy as fast would we?
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