The Next 3 Months...

Just the other day, Colorado Springs tied the record for the latest first measureable snowfall.  November 28th is the date...  I know a lot of you have already seen snow, but this is the official information that is charted at the airport.  Pretty amazing eh?  The forecast will come as no surprise to anyone who frequents this blog.  I have been talking about dry, windy, and mild for months now.  However, it is interesting to note how well the forecast is verifying.  The current La Nina is strong, will remain strong, and continue to keep the main storm track well removed from Southern Colorado.  Overall, this means that mild, windy, and mainly dry weather will continue to sum up this Winter.

Current La Nina Status:

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot

La Nina is forecast to continue for the next several months, with no real hope of returning to neutral conditions until sometime this Summer.

La Nina Model Forecast:

Looks pretty bleak doesn't it...

The Next 3 Months:

Given the forecast above, drought conditions will continue to worsen this Winter and likely into the Spring.  Conversely, the central and northern mountains of our state will do just fine in the moisture department.  However for us in Southern Colorado, it is just part of dealing with La Nina...

 Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Feb 12, 2011 at 03:08 PM
    Now I know we have never put out 8-12" for CO Springs and only gotten 1 to 2". That's a little over the top, don't you think Scott? LOL... Fact is, we even scale back what the models tell us, regarding snow amounts. Granted, we have had 3 to 6 out before and only gotten an inch or two. Sometimes, things just don't work out. However, the times when we have thrown out big totals, we've gotten some pretty good snow. Snow forecasting for our area is a tough biz, but someone has to do it. Might as well be us. Thanks for reading out blog, Scott.
  • by Scott Location: Colorado Springs on Feb 1, 2011 at 07:39 AM
    Question: If model predictions state that this is going to be a dry winter, then why do our storm forecasts continually predict huge snowfalls? Over the past two winters, I've come up with a forecast translation for my anxious kids. A KKTV prediction of 8-12 inches actually means 1-2 inches and a prediction of 3-6 inches means less than one inch. The kids in my neighborhood always come up with these plans to go sledding based on weather predictions and I always have to remind them that we won't get anything close to the predictions. Recommendation: KKTV weather guys need to throttle back on the snow predictions. We rarely get anything close to the snow totals that are forecasted.
  • by my.02 on Jan 3, 2011 at 04:57 PM
    The gulf stream has been really messed up because of the oil spill...The east coast is going to continue to get hammered.
  • by Ed Location: Drought Central, CO on Dec 26, 2010 at 11:19 AM
    NFL games being postponed because of blizzards. Ah...remember the good old days when we had blizzards here? Now dust storms and red flag warnings. It's all good though, we're just in a "cycle" Everything will be back to normal in 50 years.
  • by jon Location: strattonmeadows/ southgate on Dec 21, 2010 at 06:37 PM
    have to admit that 'hyper fire hose of a jet stream feeding moisture into the western mountains is VERY impressive, alas we are on wrong side of the divide to get anything from it.. hope that it lasts long enough to do good to the mt snow pack, big time.. am not expecting to see anything for this area for this winter.. EVERYONE listen up, refurbish your gardens this year, with drought tolerant plantings, then enjoy the results, have to give up on the snow storms for here.. look at the internet to see all sorts of possibilities .. jon
  • by Ed Location: windy dry springs, co on Dec 21, 2010 at 06:25 AM
    So that snowstorm was about it for a while i guess. We broke a more than 100 year record yesterday for the high temperature. It looks like we will be the 2nd hottest December on record, although there is a chance of breaking the record if we have a few more above average days. Man, this is depressing. It just looks like it is getting worse. I know I come on the board and complain all the time, but this is by far the worst we've seen in a long, long time. I've been here for almost 40 years and never seen anything like it.
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Dec 14, 2010 at 03:49 PM
    Hey guys, it looks like we might actually see a little snow Wednesday night through Thursday night. Heaviest totals west of I-25 with it tapering off pretty quickly once you get east of I-25. Likely going to go 2 to 6 from west to east across CO Springs, with totals between 8 and 16 inches in the mountains. Not a huge storm, but will likely cause a lot of accidents on the roads.
  • by Ryan Location: Monument on Dec 14, 2010 at 07:56 AM
    well Julio you are right this is gonna be a winter to forget because we are already in a drought and this is only the beginning because things are going to get worse for our schools we might not get a snow day until March isn't that hard to belive I guess I wish I lived in the Mountains so that we can get more days off of the school year
  • by Ed Location: red flag alert, co on Dec 12, 2010 at 06:48 PM
    No offense, Brian...but I hate reading the words "but it doesn't look like a big deal" in your forecast. I've read those words far too many times this "winter"
  • by jon Location: strattonmeadows/ southgate on Dec 10, 2010 at 03:58 PM
    Brian, something of interest i noticed, with the winter solstice usually Dec 21st, for the shortest day light hours, the sun set at 4:36 on Dec the 8th, it will set at 4:40 on Dec 19th, a gain of 4 minutes in the EVENING, but i am aware that the sun contiunes to rise at a later time each morning until after the 21st ..which would explain the fact the day light hours get less until the 21st, now how is it possible for the sunset time to begin to get a little later now instead of getting a little earlier until the 21st? even though the morning sunrise continues to get later each morning during the same time frame ?? i thought this is an interesting observation.. jon
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