Yeah, it has been a while guys... Getting back into the groove at work, busy as heck, and "Spring" is right around the corner. Why do I have "Spring" in quotes? Well, because that's when Winter usually shows up for us here in Southern Colorado. Last year, March, April, and May were all chilly and wet. This year? Well, I don't think that is going to happen. The main driver in what should be a windy, mild, and dry Spring is the current La Nina. While La Nina has weakened from its' bullish status in December and January, it is still quite strong and will continue to have an influence on our weather. La Nina usually keeps us dry, mild, and windy in the Spring, and I don't see any evidence to the contrary.
La Nina Status: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Lately, the storm track has shifted to our north and east. We don't have any snowcover, and much of Southern Colorado is dealing with moderate to severe drought.
Drought Monitor: http://drought.unl.edu/DM/MONITOR.html
Drought has a nasty habit of feeding on itself. The drier the air and ground, the easier it is to heat up. This process continues to dry it out even more, and makes it easier to heat up each successive day. Wind contributes to this process and as you all know, the wind blows almost every afternoon. This is called positive feedback. Fire Danger will continue to be a MAJOR issue until we get some significant moisture. That doesn't appear likely for a while.
Now don't get me wrong, I think there will still be a few storms make their way through our area. After all, March and April are usually pretty active weather months for us. Most of the mountain communities will see some good snow. However, I think the main moisture with the systems that occur in the next two months will shear to our east. The Midwest will likely reap the benefits of said storms, leaving us dry, windy, and mild.
I hope I am wrong, but history is a good teacher. History says I won't be wrong...
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