Spring Outlook

Yeah, it has been a while guys... Getting back into the groove at work, busy as heck, and "Spring" is right around the corner. Why do I have "Spring" in quotes? Well, because that's when Winter usually shows up for us here in Southern Colorado. Last year, March, April, and May were all chilly and wet. This year? Well, I don't think that is going to happen. The main driver in what should be a windy, mild, and dry Spring is the current La Nina. While La Nina has weakened from its' bullish status in December and January, it is still quite strong and will continue to have an influence on our weather. La Nina usually keeps us dry, mild, and windy in the Spring, and I don't see any evidence to the contrary. La Nina Status: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif Lately, the storm track has shifted to our north and east. We don't have any snowcover, and much of Southern Colorado is dealing with moderate to severe drought. Drought Monitor: http://drought.unl.edu/DM/MONITOR.html Drought has a nasty habit of feeding on itself. The drier the air and ground, the easier it is to heat up. This process continues to dry it out even more, and makes it easier to heat up each successive day. Wind contributes to this process and as you all know, the wind blows almost every afternoon. This is called positive feedback. Fire Danger will continue to be a MAJOR issue until we get some significant moisture. That doesn't appear likely for a while. Now don't get me wrong, I think there will still be a few storms make their way through our area. After all, March and April are usually pretty active weather months for us. Most of the mountain communities will see some good snow. However, I think the main moisture with the systems that occur in the next two months will shear to our east. The Midwest will likely reap the benefits of said storms, leaving us dry, windy, and mild. I hope I am wrong, but history is a good teacher. History says I won't be wrong... Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe
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  • by mike Location: Fountain on Apr 4, 2011 at 11:14 AM
    I just need to know why everytime we get the warm it comes with the wind???????????????????????This has been a horrible pattern we are in...
  • by Christopher Location: Black Forest/North CO Springs on Mar 21, 2011 at 10:27 PM
    Well, so much for my, "the pattern will change by mid March speech below. This weather pattern has been the most depressing of my life so far to be honest. I lived in Phoenix for a year and a half and the weather was more interesting there. Phoenix even had the hottest summer ever recorded in 2007 while I was living there. I guess heat and drought follow me. Anyways, I feel like we have been in a hurricane/wind tunnel for weeks now and it seems like there is no end to this miserable pattern. I wish people would stop wishing for the sun and start praying for some white rain or just plain rain. This is crazy. Thanks for letting me vent:)
  • by Christopher Location: Black Forest/North CO Springs on Mar 1, 2011 at 10:45 PM
    My hopeful forecast:) I think that March will start out dry, but as we head toward the middle of the month the pattern will start to change. I think that March will have near average precip with at least one big storm that will effect mostly the northern portions of CO Springs with heavy snow. April will yield above average precip as we head into neutral conditions accross the Pacific. This will open up the door for a couple of big storms with a blizzard on the plains. I think that May will have slightly below to around average precip before the pattern really changes this Summer as a weak El Nino developes by mid June. I think that the Summer will be near average for highs with normal to slightly above normal precip in July and August. Anyways, You are usually right Brian and thanks for all that you do. I am just crossing my fingers that my guess could be right as La Nina is starting to weaken at a faster pace over the last few weeks.
  • by Lee Location: Rye on Mar 1, 2011 at 08:42 PM
    We did get a few snowstorms so far...but we're also a TON lower on snow and cold temps this winter up here. We're in for a very scary wildfire season. I'll be hoping our traditional March and April snows do some dumping soon!
  • by jon Location: stratton meadow/ southgate on Feb 28, 2011 at 08:16 PM
    glad to see you back, really hope best for you wife. this la nina not good new for us. but this is a 'desert anyway.. been watching the snow total to date for season, if this trend holds and the total fails to make 10 inch for the year this has to be an all time new record for the least amount of total snow for us ? having been here now for near 54 yrs, i NEVER recalled seeing such a low yield snow season as this is .. well there are some really nice cold hardy cactuses that has very showy blooms along with varieties of penstemons that helps color up the yard. get rid of the water gussling turf grasses.. lots of good landscape ideas out there.. jon
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