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Another Look at Friday's Severe Weather Potential

 Latest severe weather outlook for Friday...

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Mar 1, 2012 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 1 06:54:59 UTC 2012  (Print Version)
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Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
 
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010652
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
   MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
   ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
   ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT.  RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
   ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2.  BY
   START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
   ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   4-CORNERS REGION.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
   AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS.  VORTICITY
   FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
   EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
   REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z.  BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
   OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
   OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.
   
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
   LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
   WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z.  LOW
   WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
   OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD. 
   WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD.  COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
   START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX.  BY
   3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
   MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
   CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.
   
   ...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
   SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
   DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
   REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL. 
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
   MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SVR.  OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT.  TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
   THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.
   
   AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
   SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT.  INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
   SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
   INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL.  IN
   TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
   J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
   PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
   INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
   EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
   WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
   RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
   SETTING.  AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
   MECHANISMS.  AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
   LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...
   SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
   RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR
   AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD.  SRN BRANCH OF STG
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. 
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
   LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL
   HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
   WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS.  ACCORDINGLY
   ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE
   POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. 
   MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.
   FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN
   QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 0803Z (1:03AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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