March 7th & 8th Winter Storm Discussion

While the upcoming storm looks better than the recent storms that have moved through our area, it still has some problems. 1) The track is a good one, but the storm really doesn't get it's act together until it gets east of our area. Thus, the track really isn't the problem, it is the intensity of the storm while it is here. 2) Due to a lack of intensity, this could create a lack of sustained lift in the atmosphere. Strong lift is essential to create heavy sustained snowfall, instead of just a general swath of light snow. This could keep amounts on the low end of my ranges. 3) It is a La Nina year. Storms do not behave as they normally would and the computer models struggle with this. A storm that would usually give us six inches of snow, may only give us an inch. We are also in a drought, which further complicates things. With all this being said, I still think we will see some snow out of this storm. However, I am hoping that my above three questions have more definitive answers later tonight or early Monday morning. PLEASE KEEP THE SNOWFALL RANGE IN MIND AND TO NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE HIGH NUMBER. Snowfall Potential Monday Evening - Tuesday Morning: 6 to 10": Woodland Park, Cripple Creek, Canon City, Wetmore, Rye, Beulah, Colorado City, Walsenburg, Aguilar, Westcliffe, as well as all the Wet and the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Woodland Park, Cripple Creek, and Canon City may end up on the lower end of that range. However, the higher elevations of the Wets and Sangres may see amounts over a foot. 2 to 6": Monument, Black Forest, Peyton, Calhan, Colorado Springs, Ellicott, Yoder, Rush, Fountain, Pueblo West, Fowler, La Junta, Ordway, Hugo, Eads. Locations close to the mountains will likely see the higher totals, in this range. 1 to 2": Trinidad, Kim, Springfield, and Lamar. Isolated higher amounts possible, as the snow will linger the longest over the far Southeast Plains. We'll see... Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe
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  • by Ed Location: Drought Springs on Mar 6, 2011 at 07:25 PM
    An inch, maybe 2 at the most is my prediction. I hope I'm wrong, but my constant pessimism has proven to be right with every "storm" that has dusted us this "winter." ....on a side note, welcome back Brian. I look forward to being a pain in your neck once again. :)
  • by Woodrow Location: Briargate & I-25 on Mar 6, 2011 at 06:24 PM
    You mentioned the higher snowfall amounts associated with the higher terrain. The 2 -- 6" you mentioned for Colorado Springs does that cover the whole city or Northern El Paso county. Your overview of this weather event is in my opinion more consise than that I picked up from your competitor. She would have you think that we were going to get pounded back into the stone age with snow. Keep us posted on the coming event. You do a great job Brian.
  • by KAY on Mar 6, 2011 at 06:01 PM
    Hang in there. You are doing all you can to get things right. Don't be dismayed if they are wrong. You, after all are only human!!!!
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