While the upcoming storm looks better than the recent storms that have moved through our area, it still has some problems.
1) The track is a good one, but the storm really doesn't get it's act together until it gets east of our area. Thus, the track really isn't the problem, it is the intensity of the storm while it is here.
2) Due to a lack of intensity, this could create a lack of sustained lift in the atmosphere. Strong lift is essential to create heavy sustained snowfall, instead of just a general swath of light snow. This could keep amounts on the low end of my ranges.
3) It is a La Nina year. Storms do not behave as they normally would and the computer models struggle with this. A storm that would usually give us six inches of snow, may only give us an inch. We are also in a drought, which further complicates things.
With all this being said, I still think we will see some snow out of this storm. However, I am hoping that my above three questions have more definitive answers later tonight or early Monday morning.
PLEASE KEEP THE SNOWFALL RANGE IN MIND AND TO NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE HIGH NUMBER.
Snowfall Potential Monday Evening - Tuesday Morning:
6 to 10": Woodland Park, Cripple Creek, Canon City, Wetmore, Rye, Beulah, Colorado City, Walsenburg, Aguilar, Westcliffe, as well as all the Wet and the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Woodland Park, Cripple Creek, and Canon City may end up on the lower end of that range. However, the higher elevations of the Wets and Sangres may see amounts over a foot.
2 to 6": Monument, Black Forest, Peyton, Calhan, Colorado Springs, Ellicott, Yoder, Rush, Fountain, Pueblo West, Fowler, La Junta, Ordway, Hugo, Eads. Locations close to the mountains will likely see the higher totals, in this range.
1 to 2": Trinidad, Kim, Springfield, and Lamar. Isolated higher amounts possible, as the snow will linger the longest over the far Southeast Plains.
Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe
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