Looking Ahead to Christmas Week

I know we just wrapped up a round of Arctic cold, but I am already looking ahead to what could potentially be the next round.  Today is the 10th and we will likely see pretty quiet weather for the next 10 days.  However as we head into Christmas week, things get much more "interesting".  Below is a graphic that displays weather data for the next 16 days.  Snow depth on the top part, temperatures (red=high  blue=low) in the middle, liquid equivalent precipitation on the bottom:

Notice that from the 22nd through the 24th, it gets very cold and the model is forecasting some pretty good snow.  Keep two things in mind...1) With air that cold, the snow would be very light and fluffy, just like this last time 2)  We are still two weeks away from Christmas, which means you can't take this to the bank just yet. 

So, why would I show this to you in the first place?  This same model accurately predicted the last Arctic outbreak almost to the day, from 12-14 days away.  Pretty impressive...  There are also other forces at work that supports another round of bitter cold just before XMAS.  Below is a graphic of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO).  When its index drops below zero, and in this case WAY below zero, cold air is more readily able to move southward from Western Canada:

 

Here is the Western Pacific Oscillation, which when negative, also readily allows cold air to drop southward from Western Canada.

Notice that its index is well below zero...  So both the EPO and the WPO are forecast to be strongly negative around the start of Christmas week.  During this past Arctic outbreak, both the EPO and WPO were strongly negative making for some of the coldest air we've seen in years.

So, while the snow forecast is seriously in question, the fact that we may get very cold just before Christmas seems quite real.  This is something we'll be tracking closely and keeping you updated here at KKTV.com, KKTV 11 Facebook, and KKTV 11 Twitter pages.  Stay tuned...

Chief Meteorologist

Brian Bledsoe

 

 

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