The above image clearly shows the monsoon moisture plume that is prevailing across the southwest part of the country. All of the white color on the map reflects where the best moisture is located in the midlevels of the atmosphere. The green is also excellent moisture, but is more indicative of where the showers and storms are forming. Conversely, the black and orange shading shows where the drier air is located.
This plume of moisture is key in keeping shower and storm chances in our forecast. The pattern shows no real sign of changing in the near future. This could end up being problematic, especially if it shifts slightly to the east. This will keep the prospects of heavy rain in our forecast for the next week. There are also little disturbances that will be working through the flow, and that will not only localize the heavy rain, but could mean rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. 11 Weather will be watching the weather closely this week, as this is the prime flash flood time of the year.
Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe
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