Unsettled Pattern: February 18th-22nd (Brian Bledsoe)

The pattern in one word, "Unsettled".  The upper level flow is fast and rolling right through our area, and that will send several upper level disturbances through our state.  Keep in mind, none of them will be terribly strong, but will be enough to keep snow showers in the forecast through the weekend.  Plus, our latest computer models send another wave through Southern Colorado on Monday.  Tough to say if that one will go too far south or not...  Anyway, here is a brief breakdown of how things should shake out this weekend.

1st Wave Friday night:  Will produce a few snow showers, just like the one this past evening.  Accumulations will generally be light and shouldn't cause any travel problems.  Trace to 2".

2nd Wave Saturday PM - Sunday AM:  Wave is a bit stronger, more of a southern track, but still looks to do about the same.  Accumulations look to be light, in the trace to 2" category.

3rd Wave Monday & Monday night:  Unsure if it will be a player or not.  Something we will work on in the next few days.

So, worst case scenario some places could have 4" of snow on the ground by Sunday afternoon.  Best case scenario, just a dusting on the grass.  Tough to say when snow showers are involved.  They are just like thunderstorms in the Summer.  One location gets quite a bit, then a few miles down the road, almost nothing.  So, don't think this will be a widespread and equal opportunity type of event.  Rarely is it ever...

Regardless, just plan on seeing some snow this weekend, but it does not appear to be a big deal.  We'll update you if that thinking changes.

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe




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