Six More Weeks of Winter? How About Twelve More Weeks of Winter! (Brian Bledsoe)

Yup, the groundhog saw his shadow.  Big deal, right?  Yup, that's how I feel.  But I'm going to take it a step further.  I don't think we are just going to see six more weeks of Winter, I actually think it will be more like twelve weeks.  Aside from December, we've had a very tame Winter.  El Nino has kept the southern storm track active, but most of the storm have gone just a bit too far to the south.  I got several questions about how active our Winter was going to be given the El Nino, and my answer was simple.  I said that just because we have an El Nino, it doesn't directly mean we would see more snow this Winter.  It simply meant that the storm track would be in our vicinity and it would be active.  Well, it has been just that.  Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas have been pretty stormy, for quite a while.  However, even if the storm track is merely close to us, it doesn't always mean we get hit by a certain storm.  Nuff said on that topic...

So let's get to the meat of my topic.  Why do I think twelve more weeks of Winter?  It looks like El Nino is going to hold through the Spring.  Traditionally, we have wet Springs when an El Nino is occurring.  March through April is usually our snowiest time of year, and when you throw El Nino into the equation, the liklihood of that occurring increases.  That is why I've been saying that I think our Winter is just about ready to show up.   

The graphic above shows a model prediction of the cycle of the current El Nino.  It shows a tendency for the El Nino to weaken steadily then level off a bit for the Summer.  If we can keep a weak El Nino through the Summer, that would bode very well for a relatively wet Summer.  However, some of lines of the plume do show La Nina development by the Summer.  That would be a bad thing, and would likely produce a dry late Summer and very dry Fall.  Tough to say at this point though... 

I know a lot of you are pessimistic about how this Winter has gone, but rarely do we see a lot of snow before March and April.  Plus, January and February are usually pretty dry months around here.  Thankfully, we still are doing ok regarding drought.

Drought monitor shows dry conditions across the western and northern part of the state, but that is it.  It was quite a different story just a year ago, when drought conditions were existing all over the state.  Until that changes, I am going to continue to be optimistic that this El Nino is just about ready to make itself relevant in Southern Colorado.

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

 

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Cathy Location: Woodland Park on Feb 15, 2010 at 07:50 AM
    Brian, sometime in the late 80's or early 90's in the first half of Feb, Woodland Park had a few consecutive days when the temp was 35 below zero. Can you tell me the dates of that event? Thanks, Cathy
  • by Danielle Location: 80907 on Feb 11, 2010 at 03:58 PM
    Brian, Julio, Ed, & Ryan..... Do you guys have ANYTHING better to do then stare at the computer waiting for updates from a man who's OBVIOUSLY more busy then you? Let's put it this way.... IF you think you can do his job better then him, fill out the app and move on.... if not get off his back. You guys are grown ass men getting upset with the weather man... Are you kidding me?
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Feb 7, 2010 at 07:17 PM
    Remember guys, it is going to continue to snow off and on through Monday night. It won't be heavy snow, but we should at least pick up some light accumulation. Missed out on about two inches today, due to temp hovering around freezing with added city warmth. Don't see that too much in February. Regardless, roads will be pretty slick on Monday morning. Crazy that the small storms always cause more accidents than the big ones... Thanks for reading our blog.
  • by Julio Location: 80907 on Feb 7, 2010 at 07:07 PM
    Good Call Ed! You nailed it...except I didn't even get an inch and a half as you predicted...
  • by ryan Location: monument on Feb 7, 2010 at 02:21 PM
    Its after 3 and still on the morning forecast, no update? what is this storm going to do will we get a lot or not doesn't look like it so far.
  • by Ben Location: CS East on Feb 7, 2010 at 12:49 PM
    I know its the weekend and all, but your still running the same morning segment of weather. Why dont you update the forecast? I would like to know if this stom is changing? thank you!
  • by Julio Location: 80907 on Feb 7, 2010 at 09:22 AM
    What? No update yet? Nobody is telling us that the storm is taking a southerly/northerly/whateverly track and we won't be impacted as much as we originally thought? C'mon...I'm prepared for the bad news!
  • by Ed Location: Widefield on Feb 7, 2010 at 07:15 AM
    Here's my BOLD PREDICTION: I'm going to be a little more optimistic on this one. I say about an inch and a half! Book it. Less than three inches - city wide. Storm will miss us. Just like EVERY OTHER STORM this winter.
  • by Julio Location: 80907 on Feb 7, 2010 at 06:22 AM
    DC is expecting 35 inches? That's alright! WE'VE got our 2 to 6 (probably 2 or less....) coming our way today!
  • by sam Location: b'moor area on Feb 5, 2010 at 11:12 AM
    well it looks like we all just need to move to Washington DC.. where there expecting 35in!!!! what is the deal... does snow just not like colo anymore? I was watching the news today and they said DC’s average snow fall totals are 10-15in/year.. this new storm will put them at almost 60in... little confused..
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