More El Nino...

July 9th, 2009: 

Been blogging about El Nino recently, and you've probably heard about it on the news.  Today, NOAA has upgraded the "El Nino Watch" to an "El Nino Advisory".  This simply means that we are in the early stages of an El Nino and that it is likely to persist through the Winter.  Usually, this is good news for Southern Colorado, as it increases our chances for above normal moisture.   If you follow this blog and my long range forecasts, you know that I have been talking about this transition since last Fall.  No doubt, you will be hearing a lot more about in the coming months.  Below is more about El Nino, courtesy o fthe Climate Prediction Center.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
9 July 2009
 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 
NOAA PRESS RELEASE
 

Spanish Version

 

Synopsis:  El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.

During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest weekly departures exceeding +1.0°C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.9°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere indicates the development of El Niño conditions.

Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.

Expected El Niño impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter. El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook issued in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the highest probabilities for a near-average season.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 August 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Kelcy Location: Monument on Aug 24, 2009 at 02:29 PM
    Think this will be a bad winter. Squirrels started eating into outdoor cushions beginning of August. Trees are already beginning to turn. We are at 7500ft.
  • by my.02 on Jul 25, 2009 at 05:38 AM
    Hey, bring some rain down to the Widefield area..We are so dry! Ok, many places are, I know..We need a good soaking!
  • by KRISTI Location: WESTCLIFFE on Jul 22, 2009 at 11:22 AM
    I THINK WE MAY BE IN FOR A HUGE WINTER, WHICH MAKES DRIVING UP AND DOWN OAK CREEK GRADE PRETTY HAZARDOUS, HOWEVER, LIVING UP HERE WE ARE PREPARED FOR JUST ABOUT ANYTHING. I DID NOT EVEN GET TO RIDE MY SNOWMOBILE LAST WINTER, IT WAS SOOOO DRY!!! LET IT SNOW I SAY!!!
  • by Denise Location: Peyton on Jul 22, 2009 at 05:43 AM
    Snow would be nice for me also if I didn't have to commute on Woodmen Rd everyday! I must disagree with you Julio, I don't want to get slammed. In 06-07 there were many rural floks that were without power for several days and many ranchers lost a lot of cattle that winter. Bring on some snow, but not like that year!
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jul 21, 2009 at 01:52 PM
    You got it my.02...lol.
  • by my.02 on Jul 21, 2009 at 05:27 AM
    That's Brian's disclaimer..So we don't all come back on him and get mad if it's a low snow total year! hahahaa...
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jul 19, 2009 at 07:37 PM
    Remember guys, an El Nino doesn't guarantee a lot of snow. Yes, the odds go up considerably, but it isn't a slam dunk.
  • by Dustin Location: 80910 on Jul 18, 2009 at 08:46 PM
    I would love for it to snow a bunch this winter. We really need the moisture here and I love the snow. I was in Iraq in 06-07 and didnt get to see the snow. And last winter it snowed a little bit but not enough. Snow dang it SNOW!!!
  • by Ryan Location: Monument on Jul 18, 2009 at 05:02 PM
    I hope we get a lot of it I mean a lot of it because I want it to be a snowey winter I haven't seen a snowey winter since the winter of 06-07 so I hope it comes
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jul 14, 2009 at 02:54 PM
    Here in Southern Colorado, El Nino winters are usually a little warmer than normal, but usually snowier than normal. However, if you lay a good amount of snow on the ground early in the Winter and keep it around, temperatures will be below normal. Back in 2006-07, we had several storms dump heavy snow on the Palmer Divide and Arkansas Valley. They saw colder than normal temperatures, due to the snowpack. Wouldn't lay money on it, but I am forecasting an October snowstorm. We usually see a good one of those during an El Nino year. Recent big October storms: 1997 and 2006. Would have to look other up... Thanks for reading our blog.
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