Developing El Nino

Developing El Nino

Topic Author: Brian Bledsoe

Posted: 10:22 PM Jun 30, 2009

Replies Posted: 12 comments

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After dealing with La Nina for the past few years, and the occasional drought the goes along with it, I am happy to talk about El Nino. For those of you that aren't familiar with La Nina or El Nino, here is a good source of info: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/enso_cycle.shtml Pretty much all you need to know is La Nina favors drought conditions for Colorado and El Nino favors wetter than normal conditions.

Below is the Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly graphic:

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot

Notice the warmer than normal water off the west coast of South America. That is a sign that El Nino is developing and likely going to strengthen. The graphic below is a forecast for how strong this El Nino will get:

If it materializes like I think it will, we will likely see above normal moisture for the rest of the Summer and Fall. Early Winter could also be quite stormy, before a lull, then we should have an active Spring. Either way, the prospects of drought returning do not look good in the near future. Boy, we haven't been able to say that for quite some time...

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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by Kelcy Location: Monument on Aug 24, 2009 at 03:31 PM

Think this will be a bad winter. Squirrels started eating into outdoor cushions beginning of August. Trees are already beginning to turn. We are at 7500ft.

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by Julio Location: 80907 on Jul 21, 2009 at 08:45 AM

I know Brian...I'll keep that in mind. But it does seem like a slam dunk when we have La Nina that we won't get any snowstorms bigger than an inch or two. It seems that way any way. I would love to see a "normal" or an above normal winter aroun here. haven't seen one i like 9 years now. I noticed the "average" has gone down about an inch....hope that trend doesn't continue. But, I know, I know, that what makes it an average.

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by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jul 19, 2009 at 08:38 PM

Remember guys, an El Nino doesn't guarantee a lot of snow. The odds for above normal snowfall goes up, but it isn't a slam dunk. Just keep that in mind...

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by Ryan Location: Monument on Jul 18, 2009 at 05:59 PM

the past 2 winters have been very dry but now this winter is going to be AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I so want one so badly so keep it coming.

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by Julio Location: 80907 on Jul 13, 2009 at 06:42 AM

I can honestly say I haven't been this psyched about the upcoming winter in years. I usually brace myself for the words "below ave precip. and above ave temps." I can't wait to get slammed this winter.

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by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jul 7, 2009 at 09:53 PM

June rain total for Colorado Springs was 2.91". July total is already 1.57". Gotta love the rain...

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by my.02 on Jul 7, 2009 at 09:04 PM

Do you have any rainfall totals for June yet?

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by Austin Location: Canon City on Jul 4, 2009 at 11:07 PM

This is great news and we just might have some decent rainfall this summer and also have some decent snowfall this winter. BRING IT ON!!! Have a happy 4th of July!!!

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by Dolores Location: Rocky Ford on Jul 4, 2009 at 07:14 AM

Hi Brian, thanks for all the info you give us. The El Nino news is great!! Maybe the summer heat won't be so hard to take knowing there is a better chance for snow this winter. Thanks again and have a happy 4th of July.

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by Ryan Location: Monument on Jul 3, 2009 at 06:26 PM

THAT'S RIGHT BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this is gonna make me so excited for winter I so can't wait

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by JULIO Location: 80907 on Jul 1, 2009 at 10:10 PM

BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This makes me SOO excited for winter....we might actually have one this year!

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by Tim Location: C. Springs on Jul 1, 2009 at 10:41 AM

Hmmm, good news indeed, especially for those out east. Headed north of Kit Carson to help harvest wheat for the next couple weeks, let's keep the storms away until we're done ;)

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