April 4th, 2009 Storm Potential

Our weekend storm is still on its way, but the track is still a bit uncertain.  Our latest computer models are tracking the core of the upper low directly over the state of Colorado.  That is a less than ideal track for significant snow production in Southern Colorado.  The last two storms that have moved through and produced nasty weather for us, have dropped through north-central New Mexico.  This track puts us on the northern side of the storm, and puts in a favorable spot to see significant snow.  The way the Saturday storm is tracking, it looks to move through a bit too far to the north to do much.  That being said, I think the northern Front Range may deal with heavy snow and wind.  That would mean tough travel from Castle Rock to Cheyenne and to the northeast.  I have displayed different computer model projections below, as they do have some subtle differences:  Check it out...

GFS Upper Low Position Saturday Morning:

Upper Low Position Saturday Noon:

 

Upper Low Position Saturday Evening:

Upper Low Position Sunday Morning:

NAM-WRF Upper Low Track:

Upper Low Position Saturday Morning:

 

Upper Low Position Saturday Noon:

 

Upper Low Position Saturday Evening:

 

Upper Low Position Sunday Morning:

 

EURO Upper Low Track:

Upper Low Position Friday Evening:

 

 

Upper Low Position Saturday Evening: 

 

With the above tracks of the NAM-WFR, GFS, and EURO all in pretty good agreement in taking the upper low right over the top of us, I have a decent amount of confidence that the worst of the storm will go north of Southern Colorado.  The Palmer Divide may be right on the southern edge of the worst weather, and that is what we are struggling with right now.  Snow and strong wind could cause blizzard conditions to develop across the northern third of the state on Saturday.  Bottomline...if you have travel planned in the mountains, to Denver or north-northeast of Denver, be prepared for hazardous travel conditions.  I will provide updates on the situation as new information arrives.

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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