Runnin' a bit behind...

January 22nd, 2009:

We all know that this Winter has been a piece of cake.  No huge Arctic Outbreaks, no huge storms, and temperatures have been a real treat as of late.  To put this in perspective, check out the snow totals so far this Winter:

Alamosa:  13.2" ( 5.2" below normal )

Colorado Springs:  10.5" ( 10.5" below normal )

Pueblo:  4.8" ( 14" below normal )

Denver:  15"

Goodland, KS:  7.7"

Clearly the first part of the Winter isn't our snowiest part of the season, but we should still have had better snow by now.  February isn't a terribly snowy month for Eastern Colorado.  March and April can do big things, but the pattern has to be conducive to storm development before that can occur.  We talked about this last Fall, when I saw La Nina coming back.  As you well know, La Nina is not a snow maker for most of us in Eastern Colorado.  The rest of the Winter and into Early Spring, I would look for wild temperature swings, bouts of very warm weather, plenty of wind, and not much snow.  Granted, it only takes one good storm to bring us back to normal.  Hopefully, we will get a couple good storms.  I just don't have an optimistic feel about that occurring...

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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  • by ryan Location: monument on Feb 22, 2009 at 07:44 AM
    are you saying a bit behind that is so wrong we are a lot behind well folks say good bye to snow and hello to red flag warnings all spring and summer long hope that we get el nino next winter
  • by jon Location: 80905 southgate/strattonmeadows on Feb 17, 2009 at 09:28 AM
    Julio & others: be prepared for a virtully precipitationless Mar. & Apr. dry/windy/fire danger, i believe will be our portion/ a new record low season snowfall total is inevitable. This amount of snow = to what south Texas use to get.. get your garden hose ready for defending your property against fires...
  • by julio Location: 80907 on Feb 16, 2009 at 07:55 PM
    With all the potential storms that missed up last week. Are we now runnin' a LOT behind? Any changes yet in the pattern? Any hope for a snowy March/April?
  • by ryan Location: monument on Feb 2, 2009 at 07:07 AM
    this winter is terrible it could be the worst winter ever in our lives I can't belive that winter is almost over that means when spring comes that means summer is just around the corner and summer is usally the worst thing that can happen in colorado even in southern colorado better hope that we get el nino next winter if we get la nina agian oh boy this would be another bad winter agian
  • by my.02 on Feb 2, 2009 at 05:36 AM
    Brian, thanks for putting this all in terms that we understand! Anyone who has lived here long enough knows that the weather patterns change so much..That's why we have the rep that we do.
  • by julio Location: 80907 on Jan 29, 2009 at 08:46 AM
    touche Brian...I know you are the expert and I appreciate your explanation. Is there any particular reason why were in anotehr la nina pattern? we don't often have two la nina patterns back to back like were currently experiencing right? fyi, i grew up in a desert community - west texas... and i LOVE snow and cold weather... :)
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jan 28, 2009 at 01:18 PM
    Julio, if you look up information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation you will see what I mean. Negative phase favors more La Nina's which would favor drier than normal conditions. Positive phase favors more El Nino's, which favor wetter than normal conditions. Currently, we are in the negative phase which doesn't bode well for above normal moisture. This doesn't mean one decade dry then one decade wet. It is more complicated than that and involves many factors. Again, it is cyclical and it is shown through history. Is this some unprecendented event that has never occurred before? I highly doubt it. Keep in mind, we only have about 140 years of decent weather records. That is just a miniscule fragment in history. Makes one wonder what happened before that... Thanks for checking in.
  • by julio Location: 80907 on Jan 28, 2009 at 08:49 AM
    okay first of all. I understand what you are saying about there are dry winters and wet winter. However, 3 of the top ten driest (lowest amount of snowfall) over teh last 113 years have been in the 2000's. With this year, no doubt, adding to the list. So what does this tell me? that the 2000's have (or will be) the DRIEST winters on record. Not just cyclical dry decade then wet decade as you mentioned earlier. the DRIEST ON RECORD. Doesn't that concern anyone?
  • by Lee Location: Dowtown 80903 on Jan 27, 2009 at 07:57 PM
    YOOOOO! You tell em' Brian!
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Jan 27, 2009 at 04:59 PM
    Julio, keep in mind that weather is cyclical. The 1990's were the wettest decade on record in Colorado. So far, the 2000's have been quite dry. We will go through wet times and dry times, and rarely will the weather ever be "normal" here in Colorado. The extreme's make up what is perceieved as "normal". Think of it this way. If CO Springs gets 80" of snow one year and 10" the next year, the average snowfall for those two years is 45". Does that really tell the story? Not only that, but we likely won't see that normal of 45 every year. We'll have snowy years and dry years. Certainly nothing unprecedented and I seriously doubt it is has anything to do with "global warming". How soon people forget the Winter we had in 2006-07. Briargate had over 100" of snow that year. Thanks for reading our blog.
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