Drought Update... July 10, 2008KKTV Blog Listing
Drought Update... July 10, 2008
Topic Author: Brian Bledsoe
Posted: Jul 10, 2008
Replies Posted: 18 comments
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Drought Update... July 10, 2008

Despite some isolated storms that did provide some decent rain on the Southeast Plains, the drought situation has continued to intensify.  The Southeast Plains are in the midst of a Moderate to Exceptional drought, depending on your location.  We haven't seen it this dry for over 2 years, and it doesn't look like it will change anytime soon.  The really bad part about this setup, is that it is getting dry in the mountains too.  We haven't see many fires pop up in the "high country" this year, but that may be about ready to change.  All of that Winter moisture has resulted in lush vegetation, that is ripe to dry out, and in a hurry.  Below is the Drought Monitor, and it clearly shows our situation:

 

A week from now, the GFS shows the ridge still over our area and very reluctant to move.  The graphic below shows the main jet core well to our north.

It also looks like the heat will continue.  All of that purple on the graphic below is the heat the West has been dealing with for the past few months.

I am starting to wonder if this pattern is going to break this Summer, or if we will have to wait until the Fall.  No doubt, it is a tough situation for area farmers and ranchers.

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

Read Comments
Posted by: Josh Location: Monument
Julio you are right. People don't realize what is going on. This is just gonna get worse.

Posted by: Julio Location: 80907
In addition to the statistics below, I read on the KRDO website that the first 7 months of 2008 (Jan - July) are the DRIEST EVER ON RECORD!!! This is soooo much worse than I think anyone in CS realizes!

Posted by: Julio Location: 80907
Heres some statistics I dug up on the National Weather Service website. We're on course to tie for the third hottest month (average temps) over the last 105 years. We're also on course to be the 4th driest July in the last 105 years. I don't think people around here realize how bad this is. Remember that horrible drought summer of 2003? We're going to get worse than that. And you weather guys say that August isn't goin to be any better right? I know you're sick of me asking, Brian, but what does the short term future look like? What about winter, any more info on that slight chance of an el nino returning? I can't forget that dreadful summer of 2003 and the annoying water restrictions that followed.

Posted by: Brian Location: WXCenter
Lee, the "monsoon" as some people call it has been shifted to our south and west this year ( especially to the south ). Plus, the southwest part of the state had so much snow last Winter, they will be in good shape for quite a while. Here on the east slope, we've had quite a tough time. No real snow to speak of this last Winter ( minus the Wet Mountains ), and not much rain this Summer. That's Colorado though, either too much or not enough. Thanks for reading our blog.

Posted by: Lee Location: Widefield, CO
Brian, Is it me or does the wx pattern, that normally run from the south, to the north (Front Range) seem to have slipped to the west (Montrose).. Talking to folks over there it seems pretty green and they've had quit a bit moisture.

Posted by: Brian Location: Weather Center
Julio, it is bad already and going to get worse before it gets better. The drought is not only intensifying, but it is expanding. We've seen our share of fires at the lower elevations, but now the attention is going to turn to the mountains. Unfortunately, our fire season is likely going to continue and get worse. Thanks for reading our blog.

Posted by: Julio Location: 80907
Seriously Brian...how bad is this drought going to get? I was looking at our total precip for the year so far...we're over 7 inches below the normal! This could get pretty bad fast, right? Any changes that may indicate that August may be better or does it look like more of the same?

Posted by: ed Location: widefield
This summer weather has got me depressed. EVERY day is hotter than normal and we've gotten pretty much zero rain...everything is going to dry up and we're gonna have fire after fire after fire. I hope this is just a cycle and not a trend for the next several years. Dry and warm winters...hot nd dry summers...dry fall...dry spring..everything will be brown before we now it. We'll start looking like west texas for goodness sakes. And so much for the "storm" that was predicted for Thursday...nothing but a sprinkle or two at best.

Posted by: Brian Location: Weather Center
The improvement is predicated on the monsoonal moisture arriving from the south. So far, it has been squashed to our south. I am reluctant to get too excited about this pattern changing, because it hasn't changed this Summer. Traditionally, August is our wettest month. That does give us a little bit of hope... My thoughts are still mixed on what happens this Winter. If we transition to an El Nino, as some computer models are suggesting, the chances of above normal Winter moisture are good. If we stay neutral, the Fall and early Winter will likely be pretty dry. I should know more in the next month or so. Thanks for reading our blog.

Posted by: Julio Location: 80907
Josh...fat chance of a "wet winter" happening. It will prolly be another 10 years before we get another one of those. But we can always hope, right?

Posted by: Josh Location: Monument
I don't know Julio. I looked at what you found and thats just for the south east corner of the state. Lets just hope something happens soon. We need three or four days of just "rain". If that doesn't happen then we need a very wet winter!

Posted by: julio Location: 80907
i did a little research...according to the NWS, the drough is supposed to improve: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html Any thoughts? Anyone?

Posted by: julio Location: 80907
Brian, thanks for your answers. I think i'm in the majority when i say I'm sick of these hot temps and dry weather. I can't remember the moisture holding off this long...last year, we were dry for mot of the month of june, but the rain finally came by early july...don't see that hapenning this summer though, right? Like Ed says, how bad is this drought gonna get?

Posted by: ed Location: widefield
This drought is going to get bad isn't it? Do i see watering restrictions around the corner for next spring/smmer? I think we might.

Posted by: Brian Location: Weather Center
Julio like we've been saying for months, the dry weather is a result of the La Nina that has just came to an end. Global Warming has nothing to do with it. Some may say otherwise, but drought is a way of life in Eastern Colorado. When we do see above normal moisture, it is just that, above normal. Usually, it is either too wet or too dry here. The extremes make the norm. Thanks for reading our blog.

Posted by: julio Location: 80907
Oh well. I saw this coming after that sorry excuse for a winter we had last season....I would love to see us be above average in precip for a year. Brian, how many years has it been since we've had a normal precip year (snow and rain)? Why is this? Is it global warming? What is the reason for above ave temps and below ave precip year after year? I've never really been a believer in global warming, but I'm starting to consider it. heck, if it keeps up, are we goingn to look like grand junction in 10 years (brown everywhere and hot)

Posted by: Brian Location: Weather Center
Josh, it is a little too early to say if El Nino will have a direct impact on our Winter. However, there are some signs that at least a "weak" El Nino will emerge late this Fall and into the Winter. If that happens, our chances for some decent moisture will increase. In the next month or two, we will have a better handle on what the Winter will bring. I hope our pattern changes before then, 'cause this drought is going to get pretty rough. Thanks for reading our blog.

Posted by: Josh Location: Monument
So Brian does the winter look to be dry to? or do you think el nino will come back into the picture and give us the much needed moister we need?