A Sign of Things to Come...

Wild fires in September?  Sure.  Especially if you've had rain most of the Summer and it suddenly shuts off.  If you read our blog regularly, you know that I love long range forecasting.  Following the sun and its' cycles, what phase the oceans are in, etc., is fun to me.  Recognizing the trend, seeing if that trend will continue or change, and specifically what that trend will mean for our local weather is where I can tie it all together.  Sometimes the particular thing that impacts the trend is subtle.  Other times, it is so clear cut that it seems just plain easy.  Unfortunately, this upcoming Fall and Winter seems pretty easy to figure out.  La Nina is back and has been for the past couple months.  It continues to strengthen and this is not a good sign for Southern and Eastern Colorado.  

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot 

All of that blue and purple across the central Pacific Ocean means that the current sea surface temperatures are below normal.  This is consistent with La Nina and the upper pattern has shown some signs of reflecting this La Nina trend.  Remember all that nice rain we had in July and early August?  That has shut off completely.  I don't think it is coming back anytime soon...

The prevailing pattern during a La Nina is one of frequent frontal passages, usually accompanied by a strong north to northwest wind.  That usually keeps the heavy snow away from much of the Front Range of Colorado.  It does mean good snow for the central and northern mountains, but keeps areas immediately east dry and windy.  Now this doesn't mean that we will be snow free or not see an occasional snowstorm or two, but the frequency of heavy snow is greatly reduced.  So, if you were expecting big things this Winter in terms of snow, I think the Winter of 2010-11 will disappoint you.  Will continue to update you on the progress of La Nina and get more specific with the forecast in the coming weeks.

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by mike Location: Rye, Colorado on Oct 24, 2010 at 08:20 PM
    So does this mean that we will have a dryer winter or will it be a wet winter?
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Sep 26, 2010 at 07:21 PM
    Two things to keep in mind folks. 1) It will cool down & 2) When it happens, it will likely be a very sharp cooldown. Weather is cyclical and since we've been so warm for so long, the opposite extreme usually has to occur at some point. Don't get me wrong, this winter will still likely be mild, windy, and dry. However, I believe that first shot of cold air may be a big one. Time will tell...
  • by Ed Location: Widefield on Sep 26, 2010 at 03:23 PM
    What the heck? Every time I check this website the forecast for the week gets hotter and hotter. 89, 87 for the last weed of September? Are you flippin' kidding me? My kids are bugging me to put the halloween decorations out. I hate to tell them it's too hot outside! Is this ridiculous hot weather ever going to end? All you kktv people kept saying last week was, "it's going to be so beautiful next week!" "Get out and enjoy the nice weather!"...and the like. Well, it's too hot to enjoy the weather. I prefer FALL in FALL not SUMMER!!!! MEanwhile you people are all giddy about the warm temps. We'll see how giddy you are next summer when we're in a fire danger EVERY DAY and on water restrictions because of a drought. Out.
  • by Ed Location: Widefield on Sep 25, 2010 at 06:12 AM
    Hottest September on record. It's just going to get worse folks. I will not be surprised if we see record low snowfall this winter season and record high temps. It doesn't matter - La Nina, El nino - we're in a cycle and it's going to be like this for the next decade or something crazy like that. Bleh, I'll still complain about it.
  • by Abby Location: Colorado springs on Sep 24, 2010 at 05:35 PM
    When I first moved here, I was told that CO only got maybe 10-15 days of "hot" above 90 degrees weather a year... What is the real truth about good ole Colorado weather?
  • by billy Location: monument on Sep 23, 2010 at 09:06 PM
    Hey you guys always say hey ist really hot , great go out side. man i wish it would at least get around average temp so it would be bearable.
  • by rob Location: colorado springs on Sep 23, 2010 at 09:04 PM
    Hey brian can i ask you a question. Will it ever cool off seriously. I mean i can deal with some what dry weather, we live in a arid climate but when it is mid 80s when it should be in the low 70s why is that and in say January where the high should be in the low 40s to mid 30s will it be in the 60s or 70s. Argh its driving me crazy
  • by Brian Location: Weather Center on Sep 21, 2010 at 09:23 PM
    Official report won't be in for another week or so, but we are averaging 6.2 degrees above normal for the month. If we don't get the rain tomorrow evening and night, it will likely not only be one of the hottest, but one of the driest.
  • by Ed Location: Widefield on Sep 21, 2010 at 09:10 PM
    I would be willing to bet this has to be the hottest September to date as well. Can you confirm that Brian? Man, this winter is going to be a lame one.
  • by Paul Location: Rockrimmon on Sep 21, 2010 at 12:19 PM
    Monday's 90 degrees in the Springs tied the all time latest date to hit 90. Incredible.
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