Tropics Starting to Heat Up...

So far, it has been a quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Alex was a strong storm, but  Bonnie and Colin not so much.  Traditionally, we don't see hurricane activity ramp up until we get into mid August.  The graphic below shows how the year plays out regarding hurricane activity and frequency:

Notice how activity usually spikes in September then declines a bit, then spikes a bit more in October.  That trend is one that doesn't deviate much from the past hundred years.  This year will likely be no exception, with a couple wrinkles.  1)  The Atlantic Ocean is in a very warm phase and 2) The La Nina occurring in the Pacific usually favors increased hurricane activity. 

Early this afternoon, Tropical Depression 5 formed.  Isn't impressive and likely won't be that impressive in the coming days.  However, the environment that exists around it suggest it could strengthen and become Tropical Storm Danielle.  Here is what the computer models think about it:

Most of the models take a weak Danielle into the coase of Louisiana later this week.  Either way, it likely won't mean more than some enhanced rainfall for parts of the Southeast.  However, this is likely a sign of increased action in the coming weeks...

Chief Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe

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